We expect the automotive semiconductor market to grow by more than 9% annually through 2030. This slide show presents the findings of a BCG study that looked at trends in the automotive semiconductor market crucially, our study disaggregated the market by chip type and manufacturing technology. However, the nature of the chip shortages and the device types affected will change over time, requiring automakers to actively manage risks as the situation evolves. The growing sophistication of vehicles means that, despite recent capacity investments, the imbalance between chip supply and demand will persist-at least for some types of semiconductors-over the next four years.

But continuing growth in automotive semiconductor demand is inevitable, as penetration of semiconductor-intense automotive applications, such as higher levels of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and electrification, increases. Pandemic-induced manufacturing and logistics challenges are easing consumer chip demand has reached a saturation point and is in a cyclical decline. The semiconductor shortages that have plagued the automotive industry may persist in some form through as late as 2026.

īy Aakash Arora, Albert Waas, Ramiro Palma, Jimmy Feng, Karl Breidenbach, Harrison Xue, Thomas Lopez, and Minhal Dhanjy To manage risks and secure supplies, automotive companies must build resilient supply chains, align semiconductor strategy with product strategy, and establish their place in semiconductor value chains to support their critical needs. Fifty percent of future fabrication capacity is planned in mainland China, creating significant geopolitical risk.The tight supply for analog and microelectromechanical systems chips will likely persist, in part because the comparative cost penalty of operating new fabrication plants versus fully depreciated ones will discourage investments.To meet the needs of centralized architecture and advanced driver assistance systems, auto semiconductor demand will need to shift from mature nodes to more advanced nodes and wide-bandgap discrete components.Disaggregating the market reveals three major challenges: The CEO’s Dilemma: Business Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty.Technology, Media, and Telecommunications.

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